The Most Dangerous Time of the Year
Three Guys Golf Blog: I write this post mostly as a reminder to myself, but I suspect it may apply to many of you as well. Each year about this time, my golf game is just about as good as it gets. For me, this means I am hovering right around the mendoza line of a 10 handicap. In terms of score, I will shoot between 78 and 83 with the difference being just a few 12 foot putts or a couple of nice chips.
Unfortunately, my brain starts to believe that what I really need to do is just tweak my swing so I can hit the ball a little farther. Whether that means taking a wider back-swing, making bigger follow through, or focusing on keeping elbows down, each a recipe for disaster when I try to take it to the course.
The most dangerous time of year is when you are playing your best
Hence, this is why I call this the “Most Dangerous Time of the Year”. It is the time I need to remember why my game is where it is and resist the urge to change much at all. Of course, this always begs the question why Tiger would have changed his swing even when he was the most dominate player in the world but that is a different subject and just another one of a million differences between me and Tiger (waitresses excluded).
So this is going to be the year that I do not make any fundamental changes to my swing in late July/August. Instead, I am going to try and follow my “be the ball Danny” theory.
10 handi shooting between 78 and 83. Oh boy! got a bagger here folks.
How do you figure? By my handicap, I should shoot low 80’s. I can tell you who is a sand-bagger…all the guys who win tournaments with a 16 handicap and shoot 76. Now that is statistically nearly impossible. The reality is that I only shoot 78 or 79 maybe once a month. 80% of my scores are 81-85 which is right where my handicap says I should be.
What I have learned from playing tournaments this year is that you have to be a sand-bagger to have much of a chance to win.
Based on what you said before if you shoot between 78 and 83, you take the top 50% of your scores 78-81 for an average of 79.50 – that’s about a 7.50 differential times 96% gives a handi of 7.2. That’s why you sound like a bagger to me.
Alternatively if you are a 10 cap and you shoot a 78 in competition, that 6 differential is 4 shots under your index, and based on the USGA the odds of doing so are 1 in 121. That’s not unheard of, but I’m starting to wonder if I should be playing with you.
Now if you are really playing in tournaments where 16s shoot 76, you should talk to the tournament director and demand your money back. The odds of a 16 shooting a 76 is 1 in 37,000. That should never happen at a legitmate tournament.
You have correctly busted me for my wishful thinking. The reality is that more than 50% of my scores are above 81. I guess what I was trying to say is that the difference between my 83 and a 78 is not that big (or at least I tell myself that). Unfortunately, the reason I am a 10 and not a 7 is because I do not shoot in the 70’s very often at all. In fact all of my tournaments this year have been between 81 and 83. What really irks me is that I know if I shoot a 78 I would likely win. Instead, I am forced to go back over those rounds in my mind and see where I have lost 3 strokes due to dumb play or not executing like I know I can.
You do bring up a good point on handicaps though as most people do not realize that you should only expect to shoot under your handicap about 20% of the time (or something close to that)